The Morning After

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The 2014 elections are over, and it was a bigger rout for the Democrats than expected. A quick look over the election results showed that, not only did a Republican wave materialize, it was larger than expected.

Fivethirtyeight.com had some interesting numbers in their election coverage last night. Most notable was their comparison of pre-election polling to actual results. In short, this year’s polling skewed heavily Democrat, translating to victories where Republicans were thought to be trailing by a few points and tight races where Democrats believed they had large margins. (Average skewing for gubernatorial races: +2 points for Dems; average for Senate: +6 Democrat.)

So, Obama is now in a situation similar to W at this point in his presidency – his popularity with the electorate has fallen off, and he faces a House and Senate controlled by the opposition. What happens now?

Option 1.) We spend the next two years in gridlock with virtually nothing substantial being accomplished. A Republican House and Senate passes multiple bills that Obama is forced to veto – approving the Keystone XL pipeline, repealing Obamacare, etc. These votes are all used to campaign in 2016, with Democrats painting Republicans as pure partisans and the Republicans painting Democrats as obstructionist. (Oh, the irony.) A quick perusal of Democratic pundits this morning shows they believe the field to be stacked in their favor for 2016 for retaking the Senate, so the blue team may take this route with the confidence of electing Hillary in 2016 with control of the Senate on her coattails.

Option 2.) Obama compromises with the Republican-controlled legislature to pass some items on his agenda and get some of his appointments through. Arguably the best situation for the country, but it makes talking-points campaigning harder in 2016. Republicans will likely push for this route to prevent the “party of no” meme from returning – after all, they have control of substantial portions of the government, and now they need to prove they’re willing and able to use it well. Whether they succeed is questionable and can only be answered by the 2016 election.

Here in North Dakota, Republicans won virtually up and down the ticket. Perhaps the most notable thing about the election is the lack of surprises. State government remains in Republican hands with a few seats changing parties, but the State Democrats failed to make serious inroads. The question, then, is “Why?” Personally, I’d say the national party hurts the state party; ND is right-wing enough that the far-left stances from major Dem figures has a negative effect on centrist lefties here. (Personally, I believe if Heidi Heitkamp had been running for office this year, she would have lost, and badly; but by 2018 the political landscape could be entirely different yet again.)

The eight ND measures boiled down to one simple fact: North Dakotans found it easier to say “No” then “Yes.” Aside from Measure 2 (which I’ll address in a moment), there were plenty of doubt-raising arguments made against each measure, and while I don’t think some of those arguments were valid, a majority of my fellow voters disagreed.

Measure 2 was the sole passing item, and I suspect it passed because a “Yes” meant “No”. For those who aren’t aware, Measure 2 amended the constitution to forbid certain types of taxes (mortgage taxes, property transfer taxes, property sales taxes). Given how flush the ND government currently is with oil money, it’s no surprise how the measure turned out.

Finally, a note on Measure 5. Given the 80/20 drubbing it got, I wonder if there’s going to be some backlash against the conservation groups that supported it. A lot of voters suspected groups like Ducks Unlimited were trying to get their hands in the ND oil cookie jar, and they got their knuckles rapped for it. There could be longer-term consequences.

 

Voting Day

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There’s a lot of bad advice floating around for election day.

Last night, my wife’s school called with an automated message. (We live outside her school district, so I jokingly told her that her school is encouraging her to commit voter fraud.) The message was about a major bond initiative for the school that was on the ballot – money needed for some school improvements and expansions. The message ended with “We are not encouraging you to vote for or against the measure, but please vote!”

Now, I understand why they had that last part in – the school, as a public operation, shouldn’t be taking sides in political issues – but it makes me wonder what kind of message we’re sending about our elections.

It’s the same message Michelle Obama gave recently, just wrapped up differently. (Hat tip to my brother, who provided the link.) In her case, it was, “If you’re black, vote Democrat.”

The common message here? Don’t think, just vote. Vote the way I tell you to, because of your skin color or where you live.

That’s a scary proposition.

You might be too late today, but educate yourself. Study the candidates, study the ballot measures. Learn what those candidates believe, what they’ve done in the past. Examine the ballot measures for consequences; don’t buy into the anti or pro hype at face value.

Consider carefully before party-line voting, too. Remember why places like Chicago are considered so corrupt – single-party rule for a long time means politicians no longer are worried about working for the voters, as they know they have immunity. Speaking personally, North Dakota is a great place to be right now…but will it continue to be so if the local Republicans hang onto power unchallenged?

Division in government is a good thing. Unity in government means a group can do whatever they want.

So go on, vote. But know what you’re voting for.

Well, There Went My Plans for the Week…

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Nostalgia-driven gaming site Good Old Games announced a new set of releases this morning. Gamers everywhere, including the one writing this, are ecstatic.

X-Wing and TIE Fighter absorbed a large chunk of my misspent youth.

X-Wing set the bar for space combat sims at the time of its release. While Wing Commander was already firmly established, X-Wing took it up a notch with full 3D polygonal graphics and advanced ship systems. Star Wars was the perfect setting for such a simulation, and let thousands of pilots grip joysticks tight and lose themselves in the same ship-to-ship combat we saw in the original trilogy.

I eventually got involved with an online gaming organization that custom-built missions for X-Wing and regularly had competitions and storywriting around them. Really, this involvement was my first “serious” writing outside of school assignments – and it was because I wanted to, not because I had to. While the various writeups are long-gone, it was cooperative fanfiction at its finest – a stolen setting, yes, but original characters, original plots, and a fantastic time by all.

But going on the merits of the game itself, TIE Fighter took an excellent game and made it into a shining star that still appears on “Best Ever” lists whenever they are written by someone old enough to have played it.

TIE Fighter swapped the cockpits. Instead of flying for the good guys in the alphabet fighters of the Rebel Alliance, players pulled on the dark helmets and clung to the yokes of the evil Galactic Empire’s TIE series instead. And while X-Wing‘s storytelling was good, especially for the time, TIE Fighter‘s writing still stands up as an amazing product today.

A big chunk of games now days have a good/evil alignment system of some sort, and allow players to be “evil”, but I can’t think of one that managed the subtlety and moral shadows that TIE Fighter pulled off with style and eloquence.

While we all know the Empire as evil embodied, the average pilot or soldier doesn’t see it that way. The player flies on the side of order against the elements of chaos that, frankly, cause death and pain for innocent people. Various tours of duty include yes, hunting Rebel elements down, but also bringing a halt to an inter-species civil war, eliminating pirate gangs, establishing new security outposts on the frontier, and putting an end to traitors (who don’t have pure or even ideological motives themselves).

It’s a game that makes you root for the bad guys, and enjoy doing it. And suddenly the black-and-white of Imperial vs Rebel isn’t nearly so clear-cut.

These are two fantastic games that have been way overdue for this sort of re-release.

I guess it’s time to dig the joystick out of the basement and get myself set up to fly again. There’s a war on, after all!

North Dakota Measure 6: Vote Yes

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North Dakota’s measure 6, on the ballot for November, is an interesting bit of text. It’s official description reads: “This initiated measure would amend section 14-09-06.2 of the North Dakota Century Code to create a presumption that each parent is a fit parent and entitled to be awarded equal parental rights and responsibilities by a court unless there is clear and convincing evidence to the contrary; the measure would also provide a definition of equal parenting time.”

The actual amended text of the measure:

1. It is the policy of the State of North Dakota that no requesting biological or adoptive parent shall be denied equal parental rights and responsibilities, equal parenting time, equal primary residential responsibility, and equal decision making responsibility of a child in a custody case. It is the policy of the State of North Dakota to presume
that parents are fit and an award to both parents of equal parental rights and responsibilities, equal parenting time, equal primary residential responsibility, and equal decision making responsibility of a child is in the best interest of the child. The presumption of fitness as a parent shall only be rebutted upon a showing by clear and convincing evidence. The court shall support departures from equal parenting time with written findings of fact and conclusions of law. Fit parents may petition the court for a hearing which the court shall grant to support this statute. The provisions of this section control other provisions of state law that conflict with or are contrary to its provisions…

[…]

3. “Equal parenting time” is defined as a rebuttable presumption of approximate and reasonable equal time-sharing of a child with both of the child’s parents or a mutually agreed and signed parenting plan between the parents.

(For space, I clipped all text from the century code that is not being amended. If you’re at all uncertain, I’d recommend reading the entirety of it online.)

In response to the proposed amendment, I haven’t seen anyone argue facts about single parenthood. All I have seen a number of anecdotes about horrible relationships with men and concerns about what this change could mean for kids.

The problem is that the statistics for single parenthood are pretty horrid, unless you’re a feminist who assumes men are evil.

Working off an official government report, here are some stats on single parenthood as it stands. Note that this is nation-wide; if someone has North Dakota specific statistics, I’d love to see them (and be rebutted).

The breakdown: 82% of single parents are mothers; 18% are fathers. Single households are more likely to be headed by a mother than a father at a rate of 4.5 to 1. This single statistic is the reason why so many North Dakotans support Measure 6 right now – virtually everyone knows at least one man who doesn’t get a say in his kids’ lives, doesn’t get to see them regularly, but is paying child support, but how many know a woman in the same situation?

Employment: 76% of single mothers are gainfully employed. 85% of single fathers are gainfully employed. Which ties into…

Poverty: 14.3% of the US population lives in poverty; 30.4% of single mother households, and 18.8% of single father households. But also, tie into…

Welfare: 41% of these single mothers received some form of welfare benefits; 21% of single fathers did the same.

If our goal is to give kids their best chance to succeed (and studies show childhood poverty is a big factor in outcomes), supporting Measure 6 to get more fathers a chance to be involved with their kids is pretty straightforward.

Yes, there are plenty of emotional stories floating around on the subject of Measure 6, but legislation based on anecdote is a poor way to run a state.

 

The Futility of Gun Control, Part I

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This is the first in what’s intended to be a series of posts on the futility of gun control in the United States. The reasons I’ll be exploring are largely technological, with a bit of social commentary thrown in. These posts should be weekly. Prepare to be amazed at the absurdity of what will be exposed.

Please remember that I Am Not A Lawyer. I’m writing as a layperson, albeit one who reads voraciously. As someone who enjoys shooting sports and does not own an “assault weapon” (*spits*), I still find much of the firearm law in our country to be ridiculous – probably because it’s written by people who, by and large, don’t know anything about guns.

The subject of gun control has been bothering me for quite awhile, in part because of the vast misrepresentation of basic facts by mass media.

This isn’t a surprise, really – I’ve long since concluded that the media isn’t capable of presenting unvarnished reality. (That goes for pretty much every media channel in existence.) Why? I’ve been involved in activities and events that were later reported on by newspapers, and found myself saying, “Huh? Is that what they got out of it?” Heck, even reading reporting on me publishing my own books made me wince at inaccuracies stemming from interview questions asked of me.

I don’t attribute this misreporting to malice. Rather, I think it’s a function of human nature. Anyone examining a situation brings his own biases and assumptions, which can radically affect how he views a situation. For media, it’s even worse, because they report on huge varieties of topics, and lack comprehensive understanding if most (if not all) of them. Ignorance + biases + assumptions = slant, even if they have no intention of doing so.

(Sometime this week, I’m hoping to write a post on the popular Internet meme of “Fox News sued in the Supreme Court for the right to lie to its viewers.” It’s so wildly incorrect it makes my head spin, but I understand how people can buy into it because that’s how it was reported at the time by the local papers.)

A big focus of this series is going to focus on the technological advancements that have made gun control ineffective, but I want to start with the infamous “gun show loophole.”

Key terminology to know here: FFL, or Federal Firearms License. It’s the certificate from the federal government indicating that you, as the holder, are permitted to commercially manufacture arms or ammunition, or engage commercially in the interstate or intrastate sale of firearms.

Currently, federal law prohibits the sale of weapons across state lines without an FFL.

For example, if you’re a private citizen, Jake Buck, living in Fargo, ND, you cannot sell your old 30-06 rifle to your best friend, John Doe, residing across the state line in Moorhead, MN, without using an FFL as a transfer. However, you could sell it to his sister, Jane Doe, who resides in Grand Forks, ND, without involving an FFL, because it didn’t cross state lines.

How does a transfer with an FFL work? In the case of a face-to-face transfer, the FFL records the pertinent information on the firearm and calls into NICS for a background check. (NICS is the National Instant Background Check System, and is not available for private use for gun sales – only FFLs.) Assuming it comes back immediately clean, he transfers the firearm and pockets a fee for himself charged (usually) to the buyer. Finally, he files the filled-out-form in his private records, which he has to retain forever – and should he go out of business, his records must be sent to BATF. Here in North Dakota, that fee seems to range from $20-$30.

If the check comes back with a denied, there is an appeals process. I have been witness to this secondhand (not involved in either end of the transfer) – in that case, after two weeks of appeals, his transfer was approved.

So, let’s back up a bit and talk about the “gun show loophole.”

It’s important to note that there is no “gun show loophole,” just as there is no “Internet sales loophole.” Both of these refer to private sales.

Under federal law, any person can transfer a firearm to another person without a background check or FFL involvement if the firearm does not cross state lines. Hence, in our example above, Jack Buck can sell his rifle to Jane Doe without a problem.

The “gun show loophole” and the “Internet sales loophole”, therefore, are about private sellers working with a buyer to sell a firearm.

However, an FFL must run background checks and file paperwork for all sales, regardless of interstate or intrastate transfers. A large majority of the sellers at gun shows are FFLs, as it’s a great way to get product in front of buyers without trying to lure them to a shop. All these FFL transfers at a gun show proceed through normal channels, including background checks and paperwork.

So, the “loophole” refers to people who aren’t in the business of buying and selling firearms for a living.

I can’t find my reference right now, but it’s also illegal to sell a firearm to someone you believe cannot legally acquire one. (E.g. if you’re selling a gun to a private individual, and he mentions he just got out of prison, you have a legal responsibility to end the transaction. I believe – as I said, I can’t find a reference at the moment.)

FFLs also cannot complete a transaction legally if they believe it’s a “straw purchase” – a buyer who is purchasing the gun specifically to sell to someone else. As far as the ATF is considered, that is perjury on the form 4473, since it specifically asks who the firearm is for.

Various states have attempted to close this “loophole” with more or less success, depending on the locale. If in doubt, check your state laws – there’s no uniformity.

In decades past, while gun-grabbers weren’t happy about private sales, they were easier to ignore; print media for classified ads limited the reach of transactions. Then the wild world of the Internet came along and made all sorts of connections possible that previously weren’t. Facebook is the most obvious example, with an unknown number of groups available for people to buy, sell, and trade guns. Dedicated sites like GunBroker.com and ArmsList.com popped up and prospered, specifically dedicated to brokering transactions. And suddenly the world got a lot smaller and a lot easier to find any particular gun.

So what are “universal background checks”? In short, it means that even private sales would need to involve an FFL. You want to sell your old Glock 9mm to your brother? Go visit a dealer, pay the fees, and get the background check.

Final food for thought:

Are universal background checks on private transfers constitutional? This is not a question I’ve ever seen posed (which is interesting, given the number of legal sites I read regularly), and I don’t know of any court cases on the subject, but it may be worth considering:

Let’s start with noting that our rights to keep and bear arms are guaranteed by the 2nd Amendment. Now remember that, under any background check scheme for private sellers, we would have to pay an FFL to run a background check and complete the appropriate paperwork for the federal government.

By contrast, compare the right to vote. The 14th Amendment first established a right to vote, the 15th established race could not be a factor, the 19th said the same for sex, the 24th nixed poll taxes, and the 26th lowered the voting age to 18. Note the big one? No poll taxes! You can’t have to pay to vote.

But Casey, you protest, the 24th Amendment specifically nixed poll taxes! It’s not comparable!

Ah yes, but the 24th Amendment only applies to federal elections – not state elections. In fact, the Supreme Court ruled poll taxes were unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment’s Equal Protection clause! (Which does raise the question of whether the 14th Amendment was actually necessary; the Supreme Court appears to do whatever the hell it wants anyway.)

Under this logic, laws against voter ID have been challenged repeatedly in federal court. In broad strokes, unless voter ID was available fairly easily and at no cost to an interested voter, such laws are struck down; if the state government bends over backward to make it available, it’s constitutional and not considered a poll tax.

That seems pretty weak, you might say. I mean, I see your point, but it seems a stretch.

That’s okay, because I’ve got a second example.

Church.

Under the 1st Amendment, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof[…]”. Philosophically speaking, taxation has been recognized as the power to destroy; until the 1950s, churches were tax-exempt, but in the 50s their status was codified in IRS code. (This is based on a loose and fast reading of history; finding something unbiased on the subject is difficult at best.)

In general, the Supreme Court has used a three-part determination:
1.) Does the statute have a secular purpose?
2.) Does its principle effect inhibit or advance religion?
3.) Does it foster excessive government entanglement with religion?

In general, most lawmakers steer wide of taxing churches for reasons 2 and 3. (Plus, the bad PR.)

Would universal background checks to constitutional? Are background checks on any private transfers constitutional? After all, it involved the inconvenience of travel, plus paying private fees, all to exercise a constitutional right!

As I’ll note in all of these posts, ‘I Am Not A Lawyer.” (IANAL for future reference.) Take this with a grain of salt. If nothing else, it’s fun food for thought.

Natural Born Thrillers returns!

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Natural Born Thrillers, a limited-time offer made around Christmas of 2013, has returned for a short time in iBooks!

Apple is promoting box sets in iBooks. Don’t miss out on Natural Born Thrillers for just 99¢ – less than you spent in the soda machine!

For less than a dollar you get eleven novels, including my own Dead Man’s Fugue – plenty of reading material for your buck. If you have an iPhone or iPad, don’t miss out on this deal.

 

Purge

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It takes far too long to clean out a thousand spam bots. Hopefully the new anti-spammer plugin does its job better than the old one!

Filing off the serial numbers

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Let’s start this with a statement: the title of this post in no way references firearms. ATF, FBI, etc – you can sit back and breathe a sigh of relief. I know none of you wanted to visit North Dakota.

There’s a dirty little secret about fiction writing: what’s released to the world, what’s in your hands, sometimes isn’t what was written.

Fiction often starts out as something else. The most famous example I can think of, off the top of my head, is Fifty Shades of Grey. (No, I haven’t read it. No, I don’t intend to read it. No, there are no copies of it in my house.) Fifty Shades actually started out as fanfiction of the Twilight series. (Another set of books that have no home in my abode.) It wasn’t until the serial numbers were filed off that it was published as a perfectly legal, very lucrative book.

Dead Man’s Fugue and the upcoming sequel, Contract Hunt, both have some heavy filing marks. Characters in particular were derived from a variety of sources. (People whose characters are “re-imagined” pretty much all know about it.) And you know what? It works!

Fanfiction isn’t a bad way to start in this business – just make sure you’ve got a good file, or at least some heavy-duty sandpaper, so you can turn it into something salable.

And thus ends my random thought on writing after a very unproductive day.

The world spins on

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Thirteen years have passed since the attack on New York City and Washington, DC by Islamic terrorists.

I was a junior in high school at the time. I remember exactly where I was on the road when I heard on the radio that a plane had hit the World Trade Center in New York. I thought it was pretty odd, but the details were light, and in my mind I chalked it up to an accident involving a small aircraft.

By the time I made it to my first-hour class, that was clearly not the case. More planes hijacked, more crashes, more death.

The day was a blur of sorts; in only one class did we actually focus on schoolwork (math). For the most part, we listened to the news, talked quietly, prayed.

I also remember, late that night, crawling into bed and wondering if perhaps the whole thing had been some fevered nightmare. Maybe I would wake up the next morning, it would be September 11th, and no great tragedy had occurred, some 3000 American lives had not been lost.

I was wrong.

My wife has told me once that September 11th makes her feel old. Not because she’s particularly old – she’s two years younger than I am, and I haven’t even hit 30 yet. No, she feels old because of her students at the high school. For those of us who are old enough to have clear memory, there was a “before” and “after” – and the “after” made the world seem much darker and more dangerous. Illusions were destroyed, veils cast down – there was no denying there is plain evil in the world.

For those kids, though, there’s not really a “before”. They don’t have a concept of how the world changed for Americans on September 11th, 2001.

But it’s also important not to get caught up in the past. The world continues to spin on, and we can’t afford to be endlessly caught in the immediate aftermath of an attack thirteen years ago. It’s not healthy to fixate on a single point in time, and not allow growth, context, and understanding.

In the months following 9/11/01, many Americans would have rejoiced had Osama Bin Laden been immediately found and shot by American forces. But by the time the SEALs caught up with him and put a bullet in his brain close to a decade later, I couldn’t find any note of celebration in myself, because it wouldn’t make a difference. The fighting would go on, the terrorism would continue, the Middle East would continue in its terse infighting. There was no closure.

Never forget, but move on as well – the world keeps spinning.

Turning a corner

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Given that I’m a week into September and haven’t written anything substantial in quite a while, I felt the need to write a public-facing post here.

Guilt can really send someone into a spiral.

It’s not that I feel guilty about life in general. I have a wonderful wife that I spent quite a bit of time with. I have the best son ever in the Peanut, and I never feel like I don’t get to spend enough time with him. I spend time volunteering for projects with my church. I helped my brother pour a concrete slab and start framing out a new garage. I’ve switched over to baking all our own bread, rather than buying from the store. (The wonderful wife still does virtually all the other cooking.) I spent time helping on the family farm because my dad was badly injured in a horseback accident and the family needed help.

But what I haven’t been doing is writing.

The worst part is feeling guilty about it, because it paralyzes my ability to write. Then I feel more guilt, and the process repeats.

Contract Hunt has been over half done for quite some time, but my progress on it for several months now has been minimal…because of the loop.

It’s not unlike the problems I’ve struggled with in the past with depression. I had bad, bad problems with it in college; the depression and the guilt for screwing things up (because I was depressed) built on each other and paralyzed me, until I had a whole mountain of screw ups and I couldn’t dig my way out. It cost me an extra year of college (I should have been done in four) and a planned career path (education).

So now, the site is back up to date. The manuscript is laid out in Word, holes and all.

It’s time to write.